04.17
Hello everyone,
As ProphetAlerts.com subscribers know, I have been predicting a sharp market rally for some time now. On April 12th, 2010 I sent the following annotated chart to my Twitter followers:
What I essetially indicated here is that the market was about to hit some MAJOR resistance at the 200 day Moving Average (purple line on above chart). Simply put, it would be very difficult to see an extremely overbought market push through this strong resistance.
I send nightly video watchlist’s of stocks to subscribers with new trading setups and reviews of stocks from the previous night. On the night of April 15th, I also reviewed the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($INDU) weekly chart and essentially said “this is the top”. After watching the trading session from April 12th through April 15th, I felt very uneasy about what I was witnessing. I even recommended in our chatroom to short AAPL’s stock as it neared $250 per share. I truly felt that this market has moved much too far itself, completely detaching itself from reality. There was essentially no real reason for a market rally in February.. especially one that has lasted this long.
What I have noticed in this market is very unsettling. The media essentially reacts to the market’s movements by issuing news claiming the reason of that days trading session. Notably this year, the Greece debt woes. If the market is up that day, it is because of the potential Greece recovery, if it is down that day it is because a bailout plan may occur in Greece. Say what you want, but this and last years market rally was nothing more than a technical rally with news to assist the trend. Fundamentals were completely thrown out the window, and only speculation was used as a forward-looking statement, if you will, to fuel the market rally.
This brings me to another topic. My market comparison to a garbage promoted OTC stock.
As you know, I have successfully called the tops on ALME, MSEH, and the latest promotional stock, AMOK. What do all of these stocks have in common?
1) Inflated market caps compared to their actual fundamental earnings
2) Media and press with ‘forward-looking’ statements indicating “potential” revenue and “possible” business deals and future success
3) Controlled technical uptrending charts
4) Promotions and advertisement, usually paid, in order to generate volume in the stock so insiders or shareholders can sell
5) Excuses when stock takes a hit due to insider or promotional selling
Look at the following charts for ALME and MSEH:

These charts obviously are very strange looking. But imaging if you were in these stocks during the climb, you almost start to think that they would never pull back and that they were going to keep going up forever. As we all know, stocks do not go up forever. Watching stocks like ALME and MSEH climb on complete fluff press releases, horrible financials, paid advertising, and downright disturbing SEC filings. This is how I have felt with this entire market rally these year. The bulls are cheerleading as if they were in the latest penny stock and all it does it move up each and every day. Bears are losing money because although they know whats going on, price action dictates otherwise and they lose money. In the stock market, what seems real and true often is not.. common sense is thrown out the window and laughed at. Who cares about foreclosures and unemployment numbers as long as Joe CEO’s stock options are maturing and making his millions back from the market crash.
This brings me to the Dow Jones chart:

Does this chart pattern look familiar? The stock market is essentially one gigantic “Pump and Dump” which is apparent by even the latest Goldman Sach’s fraud charges by the SEC. Have we been all pumped and dumped by Goldman Sach’s similar to a crappy pennystock, but in a much larger scale?
I think so. Lets outline the comparisons to promoted stocks for this past year’s market rally below:
1) Market caps inflating at an incredible pace, with some trading with huge P/E ratios (see AMZN). Many companys are losing EPS while the market still rally’s their stock on pure speculation
2) Media using forward-looking statements looking ahead to “possible” recovery, yet fundamentals are still horrible. Speculation horrible companies will do well again has rallied some stocks 1000% on the same fundamentals we had pre-market crash (Casino stocks such as MGM, LVS, WYNN, etc are a great example)
3) Promotions and advertisements. Ever see a CEO speak on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money? See random tickers flying across the screen on CNBC? The recent Citigroup pushing on CNBC? Media saying that this is a great time to buy stock and invest.. etc.
4) Excuses when market has a bad day or pulls back. “Greece debt worries” … “Alcoa earnings dissapoint” etc.
Whatever it is, I am more of a technical trader than a fundamental investor, simply because what we read and see I believe is complete crap. The charts don’t lie, and fundamentalists can talk all the smack on the technicals that they want, at the end of the day we have had the biggest market rally during the worst recession since the 1920’s on downright scary fundamentals. Price action of the market has been completely out of sync with reality.
I truly believe that the Goldman Sach’s SEC fraud charges were correlated and timed perfectly to be issued right at the key market resistance area (Dow 11,133) and on a Friday so people can absorb this over the weekend and possibly reverse this trend. Why have we been seeing unusual call option activity on TZA and FAZ this whole week? This was a perfectly timed bull trap this week in my opinion.
The market is one big manipulated pool of frauds and con-artists. We simply ride in the wake of the big fish, and hope we can shake a few coins from their pockets and make money. This is why I am a technical trader, not an investor.
Watch my video below, this is an excerpt from Thursday night’s video watchlist (April 15th) that was sent to subscribers:
if you cannot view this video, click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9AKBu5ph-M
Cant wait to see what happens next week.
-Kris @ ProphetAlerts







