Check out my trades for July HERE on this detailed Google Spreadsheet (which is updated nightly) to see July’s trading performance so far. Overall, not too bad considering the the crazy market- but a profit is a profit. I believe the market volatility is stabilizing and we should be in for some great months of trading here real soon!
Make sure to check out my Profit.Ly profile here, http://profit.ly/user/ProphetAlerts where I update my trades when they are completed. The statistics show I my trades are successful 75% of the time! That was even during the crazy months of May/June/July where market uncertainty was at its highest level.
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The Dow broke right through that 9,686 level I talked about last night (and the past month) and recovered later in the day, closing at 9,732. Why is that important? Because I am waiting for the signal of the real bear market that will occur if we drop under 9,000. There is very little support under 9,500 and then 9,100 – under these levels, you can literally short just about anything and sleep well at night like when everyone when short in 2008. Literally everything gaps down the next day, and you rarely get head fake gap ups the next day. Similar to how the bull market works by gapping each day almost like clockwork, a close under 9,000 will create the opposite. Pick a Dow or S&P listed stock (or more), short them, and sit back and watch your account grow.
We are not there yet. So when I see people yapping about “armageddon” “market crash” “double dip” I have to just sit back and laugh a bit. When the bulls become super bullish at the top (back when I was calling for a big market correction back in April HERE in this video) I knew that was the top and also going off of technicals. Now I hear the bears (who were previous bulls) becoming SUPER bearish like the world is going to blow up and Wall Street is going to look like Skid Row soon. This starts making me bullish- just like I was before the 700 point reversal from the 9,774 lows earlier this month.
I remember listening to those words back in February 2009 and looking at all the dead stocks left in the rubble and thinking to myself, DAMN this is a buying opportunity…. so many people looked at that like the beginning of the end and I thought screw it, I am buying. I loaded up with so many shares of LVS stock under $3.00 that I would be rich now… but of course sold too soon. How would we have ever known LVS would hit almost $30.00 one year after CNBC told us that the financial system and Wall Street as we knew it would be possibly eliminated by 2011 or 2012? We didn’t.
Listen- I am not trying to insinuate you all to start catching a falling knife…. or pick bottoms here, but you have to realize that the market is NOT in a bear trend yet. That means that short term rallies can – and will – happen until we get that no-brainer bear trend under 9,000… if it does indeed happen.
My entire point here is that ideal setups are not here yet (not even any big pumped up OTC stocks ready to dive) and most opportunities are simply scalps due to the intraday volatility and choppiness. Right when everything starts to look like a short, BOOM the market spikes right back up. You are better off playing a slot machine in an LVS casino, rather than trading its stock for now.
The job numbers come out tomorrow, and everyone is bearish on the numbers and expecting the worst. The market is sitting on some key support here, and probably the average joe went short overnight thinking the obvious- the job numbers will suck so the market will tank – Not so fast…. its not that easy. Always expect the unexpected in this market.
When the opportunities present themselves (long or short) you better believe I will be on top of it- for now, cash is better than gambling and when this market starts presenting opportunities again, it will be time to take that cash and put it to good use again.. I promise.
As Prophet Alerts subscribers know, I have been looking for a potential bounce in the market, namely from the 9,774 level as a potential bottom off the May 25th lows. It seems the market is looking for a pop, whether short term or longer term is still to be determined.
Key levels to look for in the Dow are 10,237 and 10,238 (200day EMA and Moving Averages). There is a lot of resistance above this market but I feel a short term pop to Dow 10,500 may be possible if we can get some catalysts next week. The market has become extremely news driven, and going into options expiration week I feel we should get a pop so market makers can profit on the puts sold to the bears this past week. I guess we will see!
I go over in this video our AKS position that I have been scaling into. My average price is now $13.56 in my trading account and $12.66 in my Roth IRA. I love this stock long term, my short term price targets are $16-18 however.
Subscribers also know I am bullish on UCO and oil in general. Crude oil inventory data was very bullish last week, and I dont expect a change of that trend next week. As I mentioned in the chatroom yesterday, I was looking to get long UCO on weakness and today was a perfect opportunity in my opinion. Looking for $11-12 out of this one.
I also bought SIRI at $1.02 because it is breaking a flag formation on the daily chart and it closed above the 10 and 50 day Exponential Moving Averages. I think this is a good risk/reward trade here as Sirius Satellite Radio may want to test the $1.10-1.20 levels in the near future.
Anyway, check out my video recapping the market and some of our open positions for this week:
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I have been a subscriber for almost a month now and I have absolutely no complaints. Kris is the man, that’s all you need to know. But seriously, there is no BS here. Kris provides an excellent educational service that is honest and effective. Prophet Alerts isn’t about throwing names out in a chatroom and trying to get lucky. It’s about Kris’s nightly watchlists that not only picks winners, but educates how to trade from a purely technical perspective. If Kris has to take a loss, he reviews the trade for his subscribers and explains what went wrong and what to avoid for next time. He’s not here to boost his ego and inflate his profit margin. Personally, I really like how he understands that he is directly responsible for people’s gains and losses and takes it very seriously, even if that means locking in gains a little bit early. I have been in the chatroom since its inception and it is constantly growing with new members and great ideas. Kris always makes himself available to answer any type of question you have, whether you’re a beginner or an advanced trader. I highly recommend atleast trying this service, you will not regret it.
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I have been with Prophet Alerts for over 2 months now and think it is worth every penny now. I don’t trad each pick, but I will tell you this- I would keep my subscription even if he stopped sending alerts.
Kris has a very impressive knack for the market- almost each night in April he was calling for a steep mark reversal and almost called the exact top- which was significant because this made me go all cash and saved me literally 10s of thousands of dollars in losses because of his precise market analysis.
This along with his great nightly videos are what makes me look forward to the next trading day, his discipline and teaching skills far outweigh any negatives that have come up. I also sit in his chatroom and observe and have learned so much from him there, it’s like a classroom where he teaches and explains In a humble and nice way- I have finally found a coach in my trading endeavors.
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JTX broke out today, much higher than our $1.58 buy trigger from last week. Unfortunately, this buy trigger hit on Friday at $1.58, but was technically stopped out at $1.54 so I have to record it as an official loss on my performance tracking spreadsheet.
In our chatroom, however, I stated on Friday afternoon that JTX still looked like a great setup and I also stated I had went long with 2.5K shares at $1.54 per share.
Today, JTX hit a high of $1.92 per share, closing up a nice 21%. Many subscribers took this trade on Friday between $1.54-1.58 and sold into this spike, which is part of my strategy. I often look for chart patterns called “Oversold Reversal Spikes” which is how I can predict breakouts before they occur. I stated this in my video each night.
Although my personal trades are not always timed right, my subscribers are using the strategy I teach nightly to identify stocks before they break out, and how to read charts and trade off of technical patterns. Stocks can breakout without news, solely on technical breakouts as shown with JTX today when it crossed and spiked over the 10day EMA.
Below is an excerpt from last night’s video watchlist that was sent to subscribers:
As ProphetAlerts.com subscribers know, I have been predicting a sharp market rally for some time now. On April 12th, 2010 I sent the following annotated chart to my Twitter followers:
What I essetially indicated here is that the market was about to hit some MAJOR resistance at the 200 day Moving Average (purple line on above chart). Simply put, it would be very difficult to see an extremely overbought market push through this strong resistance.
I send nightly video watchlist’s of stocks to subscribers with new trading setups and reviews of stocks from the previous night. On the night of April 15th, I also reviewed the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($INDU) weekly chart and essentially said “this is the top”. After watching the trading session from April 12th through April 15th, I felt very uneasy about what I was witnessing. I even recommended in our chatroom to short AAPL’s stock as it neared $250 per share. I truly felt that this market has moved much too far itself, completely detaching itself from reality. There was essentially no real reason for a market rally in February.. especially one that has lasted this long.
What I have noticed in this market is very unsettling. The media essentially reacts to the market’s movements by issuing news claiming the reason of that days trading session. Notably this year, the Greece debt woes. If the market is up that day, it is because of the potential Greece recovery, if it is down that day it is because a bailout plan may occur in Greece. Say what you want, but this and last years market rally was nothing more than a technical rally with news to assist the trend. Fundamentals were completely thrown out the window, and only speculation was used as a forward-looking statement, if you will, to fuel the market rally.
This brings me to another topic. My market comparison to a garbage promoted OTC stock.
As you know, I have successfully called the tops on ALME, MSEH, and the latest promotional stock, AMOK. What do all of these stocks have in common?
1) Inflated market caps compared to their actual fundamental earnings
2) Media and press with ‘forward-looking’ statements indicating “potential” revenue and “possible” business deals and future success
3) Controlled technical uptrending charts
4) Promotions and advertisement, usually paid, in order to generate volume in the stock so insiders or shareholders can sell
5) Excuses when stock takes a hit due to insider or promotional selling
Look at the following charts for ALME and MSEH:
These charts obviously are very strange looking. But imaging if you were in these stocks during the climb, you almost start to think that they would never pull back and that they were going to keep going up forever. As we all know, stocks do not go up forever. Watching stocks like ALME and MSEH climb on complete fluff press releases, horrible financials, paid advertising, and downright disturbing SEC filings. This is how I have felt with this entire market rally these year. The bulls are cheerleading as if they were in the latest penny stock and all it does it move up each and every day. Bears are losing money because although they know whats going on, price action dictates otherwise and they lose money. In the stock market, what seems real and true often is not.. common sense is thrown out the window and laughed at. Who cares about foreclosures and unemployment numbers as long as Joe CEO’s stock options are maturing and making his millions back from the market crash.
This brings me to the Dow Jones chart:
Does this chart pattern look familiar? The stock market is essentially one gigantic “Pump and Dump” which is apparent by even the latest Goldman Sach’s fraud charges by the SEC. Have we been all pumped and dumped by Goldman Sach’s similar to a crappy pennystock, but in a much larger scale?
I think so. Lets outline the comparisons to promoted stocks for this past year’s market rally below:
1) Market caps inflating at an incredible pace, with some trading with huge P/E ratios (see AMZN). Many companys are losing EPS while the market still rally’s their stock on pure speculation
2) Media using forward-looking statements looking ahead to “possible” recovery, yet fundamentals are still horrible. Speculation horrible companies will do well again has rallied some stocks 1000% on the same fundamentals we had pre-market crash (Casino stocks such as MGM, LVS, WYNN, etc are a great example)
3) Promotions and advertisements. Ever see a CEO speak on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money? See random tickers flying across the screen on CNBC? The recent Citigroup pushing on CNBC? Media saying that this is a great time to buy stock and invest.. etc.
4) Excuses when market has a bad day or pulls back. “Greece debt worries” … “Alcoa earnings dissapoint” etc.
Whatever it is, I am more of a technical trader than a fundamental investor, simply because what we read and see I believe is complete crap. The charts don’t lie, and fundamentalists can talk all the smack on the technicals that they want, at the end of the day we have had the biggest market rally during the worst recession since the 1920’s on downright scary fundamentals. Price action of the market has been completely out of sync with reality.
I truly believe that the Goldman Sach’s SEC fraud charges were correlated and timed perfectly to be issued right at the key market resistance area (Dow 11,133) and on a Friday so people can absorb this over the weekend and possibly reverse this trend. Why have we been seeing unusual call option activity on TZA and FAZ this whole week? This was a perfectly timed bull trap this week in my opinion.
The market is one big manipulated pool of frauds and con-artists. We simply ride in the wake of the big fish, and hope we can shake a few coins from their pockets and make money. This is why I am a technical trader, not an investor.
Watch my video below, this is an excerpt from Thursday night’s video watchlist (April 15th) that was sent to subscribers:
Thank you everyone who has reviewed our service, I am looking forward to making 2010 a great year of profits and continuing to provide the best stock trading alerts and education!
I would like to set the record straight (no pun intended) with this trading service and my abilities as a trader itself.
There is no secret here. No surprises, no scam, no hidden agenda… nothing. I am a guy here running a service that I started a couple of months ago, teaching various strategies I have learned over the years. I have learned techniques that I utilize on a daily basis including stock ’scalping’, swing trading, investing, and shorting. Some techniques and strategies I learned myself through experience and dedication, others I have learned from other traders and have added it to my skill set to further my abilities and increase the opportunities I can make money from.
I have noticed that my lack in confidence is affecting my otherwise great picks. Now that I am trading knowing many people are following me, I am starting to feel the pressure and stress of others relying on me. It’s something I am truly trying to get over, and it has affected not only my personal trading profits, but the results of those trades as well. Normally if I was trading a stock on my own, I would hold out for the goal I have. Now that I have an official performance tracking spreadsheet, I feel as if I need to close some positions out early just to show a positive gain. This is counter-productive, as many of my picks have gone on to make even bigger gains.
I am going to work on this and try to build my confidence up to allow myself to let these picks to mature, or ‘ripen’, as I am not fully realizing the maximum gains in which I see when I present them to you.
04/05/10: PIR (Watchlist) BUY trigger $7.10, SELL trigger $7.45 (4.93% Gain) – Hit a high of $8.78 today for a gain of 23.66% since the buy trigger
04/06/10: JMBA (Real-time alert) Bought at $2.89 (saying I was looking for a breakout over $3.00), sold at $2.90 for a gain of 0.35% – hit a high of $3.19 today for a gain of 10.38% today. Did mention in chat several times to subscribers it is a great swing trade over $3.00 which a few are still holding this.
04/06/10: EK (Real-time alert) Bought at $6.92 (said I was looking for a breakout over $7.00) sold at $6.92 for a break even trade – Hit a high of $7.75 yesterday (4/8/10) for a gain of 12% since my alert
04/07/10: NENG (Watchlist) BUY trigger at $2.27 (recommended as a swing trade) hit $2.50 SELL trigger today (making a high of $2.54) for a gain of 10.13% today
04/07/10: ALME (Real-time alert) Shorted avg price of $2.46 (Because volume faded and shares were available everywhere) covered WAY too soon yesterday at $2.38 for a gain of 3.2%. Today, ALME completely collapsed like I predicted this whole week, closing at $1.95 for a maximum gain of 20.7%
04/08/10: CHRS (Watchlist) BUY trigger at $5.20 (recommended as a swing trade to $5.50+), emailed subscribers to lock in profits at $5.31 yesterday. Hit a high of $5.76 today (using my Oversold Reversal Spike strategy) making it a gain of 10.7% since the buy trigger.
04/08/10: PALM (Watchlist) BUY trigger at $4.75, hit stop trigger at $4.62 because stock gapped and died at the beginning of the day.. mentioned I was looking for $5.15+. Recorded as a loss, but today it hit $5.29 for a gain of 11.3% since my buy trigger. A subscriber (tjlamb) didn’t stop out yesterday, held, and made nice money today. Great job… !!
04/08/10: PIR (Real-time alert) Bought at $8.01 (mentioned I liked the breakout over $8.00) and sold at $8.10 for a 1.12% gain. Hit a high of $8.78 for a gain of 9.6% from this alert.
Why am I showing you these results? Because it is showing that I am a better stock picker than a trader. I am not a #1 ranked trader, nor do I really care if I am. Does it truly matter how much I am making if you guys aren’t learning and making profits yourself? My goal, and the reason I started ProphetAlerts.com, is to get paid to teach people how to avoid taking huge losses and to improve their trading skills. I truly care more about your gains than what I am personally making, as I am already profiting from membership fees here. As I continue to get more comfortable with this service, my trading capabilities and profits will naturally come back, better than ever.
I would like to see more testimonials about how much money you guys are making- and losing. I would like some of these results to be posted on our Investimonials.com review page. Lets continue to make money and improve our trading skills as a Team… not as an individual. I am here to make you money, not inflate my ego and boost my popularity on a personal level. My trades people are realizing is not the ‘bread and butter’ of the service- but rather my stock picks themselves. I think this is what will make ProphetAlerts.com more popular, rather than myself.
Many times the best traders out there show these huge gains. But when you actually trade their strategy you can never duplicate their success exactly by following their trades.. this service I feel is the opposite of that… many members are actually doing BETTER than me because many of my picks do well in the long term. Remember YRCW’s buy trigger at $.36 a month or so ago when i said it was an Oversold Reversal play? Well… look at it now. Hit almost $.70 today. But the strategy is the buy and sell triggers, and I am selling too early. This is something I am trying hard to improve on… but always remember, no one went broke taking a profit!
Lets continue to grow as a community, as a team- and kick some ass in the this crazy market- one stock at a time.
Have a great weekend, and look for my video watch list on Sunday night.
In last night’s video watch list, which I send to all ProphetAlerts.com subscribers nightly, I went over the potential ZLC trade and to look for a break over $3.00, notably $3.04. Although this trade gapped over the buy trigger, the set up was perfect and did exactly what I thought it would do.
ZLC broke the buy trigger at $3.04, and proceeded to move to a high of $3.66 today for a potential gain of 20.3%. Although I teach to not buy the stock during the first 15 minutes of the day, some subscribers did anyway and made some nice profits. I cannot officially record this as a watchlist winner, however, because it voided my own rules of not buying a gap over the buy trigger in the first 15 minutes of the trading session.
In any event, ZLC held the support trend line I had drawn a couple of weeks ago on our last successful ZLC trade and reversed nicely.
Mark this down as another (unofficial) win for ProphetAlerts.com subscribers!
Here is an excerpt of the ZLC trade setup from last night’s video watchlist:
Here it is, April 1st. The start of a brand new month. A breath of fresh air, a clean slate… call it what you will, I am just glad to have broken this three day losing streak. After 2 solid months of amazing potential gains (if you were to play each watchlist setup and real time trade), I am very happy to be back on track and starting April with a bang! What a great day, there were so many setups that looked good.
In last night’s video watchlist, I also mentioned PIR (Pier One Imports) could reverse, which it did. I did not have a specific Buy or Sell trigger price, but that is fine, as we did well with the other setups. My subscribers have come to know the strategy quite well, and that includes some critical rules. One of which is to NEVER chase a buy trigger, especially if it gaps. The other key rule is to NEVER buy the triggers during the first 15 minutes of the market open. This is where people get thrashed and lose a lot of money. The market is wayyy too volatile to be predicting a move here- if the trigger is hit in the first 15 minutes of the market, the trade is VOID unless it can come below the trigger and hit later in the day. No exceptions.
As you know, my first trade of the day was SNSS . This setup actually had a buy trigger of $.90 last night, but it gapped well over this and opened around $.94 or so. I waited a bit, and actually broke my own rules and bought at $.938… stupid trade on my part, I need to practice what I preach sometimes. I was stopped out at $.925 because I like to cut losses quickly, for a 1.39% loss.
From there, I immediately saw my opportunity in FIG today. In last night’s video watchlist, I detailed why FIG was a stellar buy at the $4.00 ranges. In fact, I featured FIG in a video last week with a $4.00 target as place to start a position. You will see in the chart below, I bought FIG at $4.01 and took profits early at $4.14 because of the long weekend. I initially recommended FIG as a swing trade, which I still feel is a great swing trade here, but I lock in profits quick just to play it safe. Longer term swing traders may wish to ride it further, either way, a profit is a profit.
How the real time alert in FIG worked out today:
As you can see, it was a slow and boring trade, which I did tell subscribers it would be more of a 1-2 hold or a swing trade. It still looks good here, but I locked in my predictable profitsate afternoon strength.
Another real time alert today was SRGL – Source Gold. This has been on the nightly video watchlists for the past two nights as a potential stocks I feel would collapse soon. The strategy behind this is simple- this was a recently promoted stock, and I felt a collapse was imminent.. just like MSEH. Luckily I found shares to short at Interactive Brokers… which was surprising because my trading platform did not give me the solid green light indicating shares were available, so I place the limit order for 3,500 shares to sell at $1.70. About 15 minutes later, 1500 shares of my order were executed at $1.72 per share. The best posible short entry was $1.75 after my alert as the stock bounced a little today. I ended up covered at $1.37, although the day low was actually $1.26. I am glad I covered there, because the stock actually bounced back pretty quickly. All in all, it was a nice predictable profit… this is not a strategy I developed, but simply strategy I learned from Tim Sykes. This short strategy is a perfect compliment to my scalp/swing strategy, so these are setups you should expect from me in the future.
Here is a chart of how the SRGL scalp went down today (pun intended):
On last night’s watch list I outlined the reasons I believed HEK would be a good swing play at $5.90. As you can see from the chart below, this was a great example of the buy triggers and why it is important to wait for the trade to play out before entering it. Currently, we have a sell target of $6.15-$6.25, but many subscribers already locked in a gain at the end of the day in order to lock in profits before the long Easter weekend.
Here is the chart for my failed SNSS trade today, as you can see, I took my losses quick in order to focus on better trades. My strategy is to cut losses quick, and focus on much better trades. The big picture here is “small losses, much bigger gains” which is the only true method to use when trading stocks.
Have a great weekend. The market is closed tomorrow for Good Friday. I hope this is just the beginning of what is to come this April, let’s make this another great month!
